Israel’s Election Could Leave Coalition Talks Deciding Netanyahu’s Future

Israel votes on October 27 in an election that could end Benjamin Netanyahu’s tenure as prime minister, although a defeat for his bloc would not automatically remove him from office. All 120 Knesset seats are being contested in the first election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, the subsequent Israeli war on Gaza and a wider conflict involving Israeli attacks across several countries in the region.

Recent polls project 52 seats for the Jewish-led opposition bloc and 50 for Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist alliance. Israel’s proportional representation system makes coalition negotiations central to forming a government, and no party has ever secured the 61 seats needed for an outright majority. Palestinian-led parties could consequently hold the balance of power.

Netanyahu could remain in office if Likud gathers sufficient backing from established allies or new partners. His traditional allies include National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism. The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism could also be pivotal. Both have repeatedly joined his coalitions but have also withdrawn, most recently in 2025.

The opposition has a competing route to government. Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu and the Together alliance signed a non-aggression agreement in late September to cooperate in removing Netanyahu. They have yet to name a prospective coalition leader. Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, who leads Yashar, is considered the likeliest candidate, while former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who heads Together alongside Yair Lapid, is another possibility.

The Arab-led Joint List and Ra’am are projected to take about 13 seats. They represent Palestinian citizens of Israel, who account for roughly 20 percent of the population. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has indicated that he could join an opposition coalition, repeating his party’s participation in Bennett’s government in 2021. His priorities include tackling violent crime in Palestinian communities and discriminatory policies, including housing policies. Most opposition leaders, among them Eisenkot, have rejected such a partnership.

A coalition lacking 61 seats could instead seek parliamentary backing from parties remaining outside government. The Joint List, comprising Hadash, Ta’al and Balad, has offered to consider withholding opposition in a confidence vote. Its conditions would include a route towards Palestinian statehood and action against organised crime. Such a minority administration would remain exposed to defections and policy disagreements.

Other possibilities include a broad unity coalition bringing rivals together or an agreement to rotate the premiership. Netanyahu and Benny Gantz formed a unity government in 2020, but it collapsed before Gantz could take his scheduled turn as prime minister. Gantz later joined Netanyahu’s coalition following the 2023 attacks. Bennett and Lapid also agreed to a rotation, with Lapid becoming caretaker prime minister in July 2022 after their coalition lost its majority.

Negotiations could also produce a different prime minister from either political camp if another Knesset member proved more acceptable to prospective partners. If nobody secures enough support, another election could follow. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 amid repeated difficulties forming stable governments. In that scenario, Netanyahu would continue as caretaker prime minister until a successor administration took office.